SpaceX isn't a public company, but its valuation token SPCX is trading like one — and not in a good way. The token closed Wednesday at $116.44, down nearly 45% from its June peak of roughly $217. A brief bounce in late June to just above $170 fizzled fast. Now, with SpaceX set to report its first public earnings in August, the token is testing support around $110.
SPCX's rough summer
The token's slide has been steady. After hitting that June high, SPCX dropped through $170 and never recovered. Resistance now sits at $130, $150, and $170 — all levels the token failed to hold. Support is around $110. If that breaks, the next floor isn't clear from the data. The daily range on Wednesday was $114.95 to $118.12, tight and low volume.
What Grok sees ahead
Grok AI, the model behind the token's recent buzz, is still bullish on the underlying company. It predicted a major re-rating for SpaceX, with a price target of $225 to $300 per share by 2027. Morgan Stanley's model lands at $300; some go above $400. The AI pointed to Flight 14, targeted for August 2026, as a key catalyst — the first stable orbital insertion and ship tower catch. Successful propellant transfer demos and early orbital refueling are also on the checklist.
Starlink is the revenue engine. Grok AI estimates Starlink revenue at $11 billion to $15 billion annualized and already profitable. It projects that number pushing past $20 billion. AI and compute infrastructure — Colossus, xAI, GPU leases — is expected to grow from low single-digit billions to $15-$35 billion by 2027, based on Goldman and Morgan Stanley modeling.
The earnings catalyst
SpaceX's first public earnings are due in August. That's a big deal for SPCX holders. Total revenue is projected to accelerate from $39 billion in 2026 to $65-$75 billion in 2027. If the numbers land near those estimates, the token could get a jolt. But the market has been skeptical so far.
The bear case
Not everyone is buying the hype. The bear case for SpaceX includes further Starship slips, heavy lockup supply from early investors, and valuation compression. That scenario keeps SPCX range-bound near $100 to $140. With the token already at $116, that's not a lot of upside — and plenty of downside if the August earnings disappoint or get delayed.
For now, all eyes are on that first earnings report. It'll be the clearest signal yet whether SPCX is a bet on SpaceX's future or just another token caught in the gravity of its own hype.
