SpaceX's Starship reached orbit and returned intact on Monday, splashing down in the Pacific after what the company called its most important flight yet. The vehicle climbed to roughly 170 miles above Earth, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, survived reentry, flipped upright, and landed in the ocean.
The successful mission caps months of testing and gives SpaceX a working orbital platform for its satellite constellation. But it lands in a tricky week for the company's stock, which is still absorbing the expiration of a post-IPO lockup that freed up hundreds of millions of shares.
What the flight actually proved
Starship didn't just get to space. It put 26 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, a payload deployment that matters more than the altitude record. The spacecraft then made it back through the atmosphere without breaking apart, flipped itself upright, and splashed down in the Pacific. That sequence, from launch to controlled ocean landing, is the full loop SpaceX has been chasing.
Elon Musk marked the milestone on X, writing on September 28, 2026: 'First orbital flight of Starship successful!' It's the kind of validation that SpaceX has been promising for years.
The stock isn't celebrating yet
SpaceX shares were trading around $147.29 at noon ET, down 0.93%, minutes before the company confirmed the splashdown. The muted reaction suggests the flight was already priced in, or that traders have something else on their minds.
That something is supply. About 328 million shares became eligible for trading after SpaceX's post-IPO lockup expired on Sept. 24. Early investors and employees can now sell, and the added float can weigh on a stock even when the underlying business is firing on all cylinders.
There's also been insider selling. President Gwynne Shotwell recently offloaded $52.5 million in shares under a pre-arranged trading plan. Such plans are routine, but they don't exactly calm nerves when a lockup is already loosening.
Where traders are placing their bets
Options activity points to a market focused on $150. Roughly 22,700 call contracts are open at that strike for Friday's expiry, according to trading data. Puts are concentrated around $140. That's a narrow band, and it tells you traders see the stock pinned between support and resistance while the lockup overhang gets worked through.
The $150 level isn't arbitrary. It's close to where the stock traded before the lockup expired, and a sustained move above it would signal that buyers are absorbing the new supply. A break below $140 would suggest the opposite.
Analysts still can't agree on what SpaceX is worth
MoffettNathanson has a Neutral rating on the stock with a $142 price target, which implies the recent pullback might be justified. The average analyst target, by contrast, stands at $222.42. That's a wide gap, and it reflects genuine disagreement about how much of SpaceX's future revenue is already baked into the share price.
Cathie Wood has argued that even a $1.75 trillion valuation could look cheap if Starship works at scale. Her view hinges on the idea that cheap, reusable orbital launch capacity unlocks businesses that don't exist yet, from point-to-point terrestrial travel to large-scale satellite broadband. It's a long-term bet, not a call on Friday's close.
What to watch next
Friday's options expiry will give the first real read on whether the lockup selling has run its course. If the stock holds above $150, it suggests the market has digested the new shares. If it slips toward $140, the overhang is still in control.
SpaceX hasn't said when the next Starship flight will be. But the company now has a proven orbital vehicle, and that's a fact that will eventually matter more than a lockup calendar. The question is how long the supply overhang keeps the stock from reflecting it.
