JD Vance reported that tankers carrying over 12 million barrels of oil crossed the Strait of Hormuz overnight, marking a return to normal passage after a deal between Donald Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian. The crossing ended days of uncertainty over the strategic waterway, and oil prices stayed nearly flat on the news.
The Deal That Opened the Strait
The agreement between Trump and Pezeshkian directly restored passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world's oil. Before the deal, fears of a closure had spiked, but Vance's statement confirmed that the tankers moved through without incident. The U.S.-Iran deal appears to have defused what could have been a major supply disruption.
Market Reaction and Betting Odds
Oil prices showed little change after Vance's announcement, suggesting traders had already priced in the restored access or remained cautious. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that Iran halts enrichment stands at 67.5%, indicating that bettors see a strong chance of further de-escalation. The figure aligns with the broader easing of tensions signaled by the Strait's reopening.
While the immediate crisis has passed, the deal's durability remains an open question. Both sides have not released full terms, and the 67.5% probability on Polymarket leaves room for reversal. Further talks are expected, but for now, the tankers keep moving — and the markets aren't panicking.
