Two- and ten-year Treasury yields hit their highest level in a year on Friday, adding fresh pressure on bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets. The move comes as bitcoin continues to trade below its 200-day moving average — a technical threshold traders closely watch.
Why yields matter for crypto
Higher yields make traditional fixed-income investments more attractive, pulling capital away from assets that don't generate income. For bitcoin and gold, that's a headwind. The 10-year yield touched levels not seen since mid-2025, pushing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets higher. The two-year yield followed suit, reflecting expectations that rates will stay elevated.
Bitcoin below the 200-day
Bitcoin has been unable to reclaim its 200-day simple moving average, a level that often separates bullish and bearish sentiment. The persistent weakness suggests buying pressure isn't strong enough to overcome the macro drag. The timing isn't great — yields are still climbing, and there's no obvious catalyst on the horizon to flip the trend.
Tokenized Treasurys could win
Not every corner of crypto is getting squeezed. Tokenized Treasury products — on-chain representations of government bonds — could see increased demand as yields rise. Investors who want yield without leaving the crypto ecosystem may rotate into these products. The trend has been building for months, and higher real yields only strengthen the case.
The next big test for bitcoin is whether it can break back above the 200-day moving average. For yields, the path depends on upcoming economic data and the Fed's next move. Until one of those shifts, the pressure on risk assets is likely to stay.
