On Sunday, President Trump reshared a White House post about restarting California's Sable Pipeline, the latest push to bring more oil online as gas prices hit $5.49 per gallon in the state. The move comes as OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day starting September, but it's far from clear whether the extra supply will actually reach buyers amid ongoing wars in Iran and Ukraine.
Sable Pipeline's rocky restart
Trump signed an executive order in March giving Energy Secretary Chris Wright emergency powers under the Defense Production Act to restart the Sable Pipeline. Wright then ordered Sable Offshore Corp. to reopen the Santa Ynez Pipeline, which had been idle since a 2015 oil spill. Oil flowed the next day. Sable aimed to sell about 50,000 barrels per day from April 1, though the pipeline's capacity is 200,000 barrels per day. But on June 17, a California appeals court blocked Sable's coastal work, siding with state regulators. Sunday's reshare signals the White House is still pushing for the restart despite the legal setback.
OPEC+ adds barrels, but will they flow?
OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day starting September, with Saudi Arabia and Russia contributing about 62,000 barrels each. The cartel had withheld 1.65 million barrels per day since April 2023; that cut is now fully restored. A second cut from November 2023 remains in place. OPEC stated it can speed up, pause, or reverse production increases. Harder negotiations for new limits are expected in 2027, with Iraq already seeking a larger share. But wars in Iran and Ukraine block oil exports, preventing the extra supply from reaching the market. Brent crude was near $87 per barrel on July 20; US crude was near $84 per barrel.
Higher fuel prices push inflation and pressure Bitcoin by making Federal Reserve rate cuts less likely; lower fuel prices have the opposite effect. California's gas price of $5.49 per gallon is the highest in the US, and the national average hit $4.10 in the week ending July 27, up 97 cents from a year earlier. In June, Trump told fuel retailers to cut prices to $2.50 per gallon, but they have not complied. The timing isn't great for crypto bulls hoping for looser monetary policy. Whether the September OPEC+ barrels actually reach buyers remains an open question — and one that could determine how sticky inflation gets.
