Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, expects oil prices to keep climbing slowly as the U.S. and Iran escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, warning that crude futures aren't fully reflecting physical market tightness. The forecast, reported by Bloomberg, points to further scarcity in the coming weeks and months — a macro headwind that crypto traders are already factoring in.
A slow grind higher
Hari's outlook is for a steady, not sudden, rise. The U.S. and Iran are locked in a cycle of escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, and even if the strait were to reopen, markets would remain cautious over doubts about sustainable de-escalation. That means the pressure on oil prices isn't a one-off shock but a persistent condition.
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Diesel near $200
The physical market is already showing strain. Diesel prices are near $200 a barrel in Atlantic markets, a sign that the tightness Hari points to is real. Crude futures, she argues, haven't caught up with that reality. That gap between paper and physical markets is what makes the forecast notable — it suggests the climb has room to run.
The inflation link
For crypto, the connection runs through inflation. Higher oil prices feed into consumer prices, which could keep central banks in tightening mode. That's a headwind for risk assets, including digital currencies. The slow, steady nature of the climb means the pressure won't lift quickly.
Crypto's mixed signals
Geopolitical tensions can sometimes push money into crypto as a safe haven, but the current setup is more complicated. With inflation expectations rising, the market's default reaction is to sell risk. The forecast of further scarcity in the coming weeks and months suggests crypto could face a prolonged period of macro-driven volatility.
Traders will be watching the next round of U.S.-Iran talks, and any sign of de-escalation could ease the pressure — but Hari's warning suggests the market isn't pricing that in yet.
