A $100-a-month Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging strategy started in January 2015 would have turned $13,700 into roughly $632,315 by this month, according to a new analysis from Coinbird. That’s a 4,515% return — and an average acquisition cost of just $1,667 per BTC, thanks to early buys when prices were far lower. But the same report shows that over shorter time frames, lump-sum investing actually won out.
The long-term DCA numbers
Coinbird ran the numbers using its DCA Calculator with historical CoinGecko price data going back to 2013. For the 11-year-and-change period ending May 2026, the strategy accumulated 8.219 BTC. The low average cost came from piling in during Bitcoin's cheaper years, including deep bear markets. DCA investors who held through the 2022 crash — which saw a maximum drawdown of -76.72% — still came out far ahead.
That kind of volatility is brutal on paper. But DCA smoothed out the entry points. The analysis excludes taxes and trading fees, so real-world returns would be a bit lower, but the broad story holds: regular buying over a long stretch beat trying to time the market.
Where lump sum wins
Coinbird also tested lump-sum investing — putting all the money in at once — over various horizons. For one-year, two-year, three-year, and four-year periods, lump sum outperformed DCA across all the scenarios examined. The short-term advantage makes sense: if you buy at a low point early in the period, you catch the full upside without averaging in at higher prices later.
The five-year window from May 2021 to May 2026, though, flips the script. DCA returned +84.34% over that stretch, while lump sum managed only +43%. The key difference? The 2022 crash. Regular buyers accumulated during the downturn, while a lump-sum investor who put everything in at the start of May 2021 would have ridden the whole drop and only partly recovered.
Volatility and drawdowns
The maximum drawdown figure — minus 76.72% — is a reminder that even a disciplined DCA strategy doesn't shield you from gut-wrenching losses along the way. Investors who started in 2015 saw their portfolio peak and crash multiple times. The final number looks great only if you held through the worst of it. Selling during the 2022 panic would have locked in heavy losses.
Methodology and caveats
Coinbird used its own DCA calculator with CoinGecko's historical price feed. The analysis didn't account for trading fees or tax implications, which could shave off a meaningful chunk of returns depending on the jurisdiction and frequency of trades. No exchange or broker fees were modeled either. The results are purely based on the spot price at each $100 purchase date.
For investors trying to decide between DCA and lump sum, the answer depends heavily on time horizon — and stomach for volatility. The analysis doesn't offer a one-size-fits-all recommendation, but the data is clear: over a decade-plus, regular buying has been a powerful wealth builder.
