AAVE's relative strength index has dipped to 30, a level traders see as oversold and often the start of a relief rally. Data from smart money positioning shows 61% of large holders are now long, pointing to a tactical bounce toward $85 before deeper selling resumes. Yet the same data warns of a 65% probability that the token retests $65 within the next seven days.
RSI at 30: An Oversold Indicator
The RSI reading of 30 places AAVE squarely in oversold territory. For traders, that signal has historically preceded short-term price bounces — the kind that can catch bearish traders off guard. The lower the RSI goes, the more compressed selling pressure becomes, often setting the stage for a snapback. In this case, the indicator alone doesn't guarantee a rally, but it does raise the odds of one in the immediate term.
Smart Money Bets on $85 Bounce
Positioning data from large wallets — often called smart money — shows 61% of those accounts are holding long positions. That tilt suggests confidence in a near-term move upward to $85. A move to that level would represent roughly a 15-17% gain from current prices. But the positioning also implies that these traders expect the bounce to be short-lived. After the $85 target, the data points to a deeper correction, meaning the rally could be a chance for longs to exit before a bigger drop.
65% Chance of $65 Retest in Seven Days
Despite the oversold conditions and the smart money long bias, the probabilistic models assign a 65% probability that AAVE retests the $65 support level within a week. That's a nearly two-to-one chance that the current downtrend reasserts itself. The $65 level is a key area from past price action, and a retest would mean a decline of about 10-12% from where the token trades today. Traders are now weighing the conflicting signals: oversold RSI against high retest odds.
The next few trading sessions will show which force wins out. If the bounce starts quickly, the $85 target might come into view within days. If not, the $65 retest could accelerate losses. For now, the data offers a split picture — a tactical opportunity with a clear risk of further downside.
