AAVE, the governance token of the Aave lending protocol, is changing hands at $90.12, down below all of its meaningful moving averages. Trading data shows taker sell flow running at nearly twice the volume of buyer activity, and the current setup gives a 65% probability that the token will test the $87.93–$86.33 support zone.
Why the pressure is building
The sell-side dominance isn't subtle. Taker sell orders are outpacing buys by almost 2:1, meaning aggressive sellers are hitting bids rather than waiting for limit orders. That kind of imbalance typically points to momentum shifting lower, and AAVE's price action reflects it — the token has lost its footing above every short, medium, and long-term moving average traders watch.
When a crypto sits below all moving averages, it's a sign that recent buyers are underwater and that the path of least resistance is down. The moving averages themselves now act as overhead resistance rather than support, which can accelerate declines if sellers stay in control.
The support zone in question
The $87.93–$86.33 range is the immediate area where buyers might step in. It's not a random guess — the probability model assigns a 65% chance that AAVE touches that band in the current move. That's a meaningful number, but it also means there's a 35% chance the token finds buyers before getting there.
If AAVE does reach that zone, the question becomes whether it holds. A bounce from that level could set up a short-term relief rally, but with sell flow this lopsided, a break below would open up deeper downside. There's no indication yet of where the next support sits if that fails.
What traders are watching now
The immediate focus is on whether the 2:1 sell ratio persists. If taker sell volume starts to fade and buyers step in with size, the probability of testing support could drop quickly. But as of now, the data hasn't shown any shift.
Volume and order flow will tell the story. A push toward $87.93 on rising sell volume would confirm the bearish case. A sudden uptick in buy taker volume before that level, though, could invalidate the setup and force a reassessment.
For now, the next meaningful price level to watch is $87.93. Whether AAVE holds that line or breaks it will likely decide the token's near-term direction.
