The Algorand token (ALGO) staged a technical bounce after hitting the $0.12 support level, but the relief rally faces stiff resistance at $0.135, and chart watchers say the underlying weakness could send the price to $0.10 within weeks.
Why the bounce looks fragile
ALGO touched $0.12 on Wednesday and promptly rebounded, a move that often signals a temporary floor. But traders aren't celebrating. The bounce came on below-average volume, and the token hasn't cleared the $0.135 ceiling — a zone that has capped upside attempts since early March.
Without a decisive break above that resistance, the bounce is just that: a bounce. The pattern that has held since mid-February remains intact: lower highs and lower lows.
What the chart says about the next move
The $0.12 level has acted as support before, but each test wears it down. Technical analysts point to a descending triangle formation that points to a breakdown target around $0.10. That's roughly 17% below current levels.
Momentum indicators are also flashing red. The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering just above oversold territory, but it hasn't shown the kind of divergence that usually precedes a sustained reversal. Instead, it's tracking sideways — a sign of exhaustion, not accumulation.
On-chain data adds to the bearish case. Active addresses on the Algorand network have been declining since late January, and large transactions (worth over $100,000) dropped by roughly 30% over the same period. That suggests institutional interest is waning.
$0.10 in play — and what comes after
If ALGO does slide to $0.10, it would mark a new low for the year and a significant psychological level. The token hasn't traded below that mark since November. A break below $0.10 could open the door to another leg down, but that depends on broader market conditions.
For now, traders are watching two things: whether ALGO can reclaim $0.135 in the next few sessions, and whether the broader crypto market — which has been under pressure from regulatory uncertainty and a strong dollar — offers any tailwinds.
The next major test comes when weekly options expire on Friday. A large chunk of open interest sits near the $0.12 strike. If the price stays below that level through expiration, the sellers win. If it climbs back above, the buyers get a reprieve. Either way, the chart says lower prices are coming.
