Altcoin sell pressure on spot exchanges has fallen to its deepest level since 2020, according to CryptoQuant data. The market outside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has seen net selling for 15 consecutive months. But the numbers don't yet point to a full altcoin season — the key threshold is still out of reach.
The index that's almost there
CryptoQuant's 180-day Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 18.48. Historically, a reading above 20 marks the start of an altcoin season. The index is close but hasn't crossed the line yet. That leaves the market in a kind of limbo: selling pressure is easing, but buying momentum hasn't taken over.
Why some analysts see a floor
Analyst Joao Wedson argues that many altcoins that suffered steep declines through 2025 and early 2026 may avoid setting new record lows. He says the market has entered a 'depression' phase where large holders are accumulating. That accumulation, in his view, could prevent another leg down even if prices stay low for a while.
The long wait for a real rally
Analyst Crypto Kid takes a more cautious stance. He says a true altcoin season requires a repeat of the 2020-2021 money printing cycle. That kind of liquidity boost isn't on the horizon. Crypto Kid sees a window opening around 2028 or 2029 — meaning the next big altcoin run could still be years away.
For now, traders are watching the Altcoin Season Index. A move above 20 would be the first concrete signal of a rotation. Until then, the market remains in a low-pressure zone — less pain, but no party yet.
