Bitcoin's weekend rally could be about to hand back its gains. Analyst Ali Martinez warned on October 4 that a recurring Sunday-to-Monday reversal pattern and a fresh TD Sequential sell signal on the four-hour chart point to a possible pullback when the new trading week opens.
The weekend flip that keeps repeating
Martinez shared a table covering five Sunday-Monday pairs between August 29 and September 28. Every single one flipped direction.
The pattern cuts both ways. Sunday gains of 0.50% on August 29 and 0.66% on September 6 were followed by Monday losses of 0.68% and 1.54%. The reverse also held: Sunday dips of 0.57% on September 13 and 0.10% on September 20 were followed by Monday gains of 1.75% and 6.71%. The most recent pair, September 27, finished the Sunday up 0.01% before sliding 1.12% on Monday.
Five for five is a small sample, and Martinez isn't claiming it's a law of nature. But it's consistent enough to be worth watching when the clock rolls over.
A sell signal with a track record
The TD Sequential indicator flashed a sell signal on Bitcoin's four-hour chart. The last four comparable signals were followed by corrections of 1.74%, 4.37%, 3.11% and 1.96%. None of those are catastrophic on their own, but they're all in the same direction.
It's not just Bitcoin. Ethereum and Solana produced similar TD Sequential sell signals. The last two Ethereum readings preceded declines of 5.40% and 3.31%. Solana's previous three were followed by corrections of 2.44%, 5.76% and 5.30%. That's a broader setup, not a Bitcoin-only quirk.
Where the price sits now
Bitcoin moved above $87,000 after an unexpectedly weak US jobs report on Friday, then fell back below $84,000. At the time of writing, CoinGecko data showed it a couple of hundred dollars above $86,000, up about 1.5% over 24 hours and nearly 4% over the past seven days.
The two-week and 30-day gains are almost 6% and over 8% respectively. But the longer view is still ugly: Bitcoin is down roughly 31% on the year and about the same distance below its all-time high of more than $126,000.
Levels to watch
Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet research pegged $87,500 as the critical resistance level and $82,000 to $85,000 as the support range. That puts the current price in the upper half of the support band, which doesn't leave much room before a deeper test.
If the Sunday-Monday pattern holds, the question is whether Monday's move is a shallow dip or something closer to the Ethereum-style corrections. The TD Sequential signals on three major assets suggest the latter is at least on the table.
Monday's open is the next concrete checkpoint. Until then, the setup is a warning, not a confirmation.
