Crypto analyst and trader Aralez released a 2026 price prediction on May 16 that calls for Bitcoin to drop as low as $58,000 this quarter and Ethereum to $1,700. At the time, Bitcoin was trading above $76,900 and Ethereum above $2,100 — implying a potential decline of 24% and 19%, respectively. The forecast also lays out a recovery path into the fourth quarter, with Bitcoin flipping bullish toward $90,000 and above $109,000.
The Q2 crash scenario
Aralez expects panic selling to peak in the current quarter, alongside a broader market slide. The S&P 500, the analyst says, could decline below $6,800. The prediction ties the downturn to a macroeconomic shakeout that hits both crypto and equities.
A new Fed chair as a trigger
A key catalyst Aralez points to is the expected Federal Reserve leadership change. Jerome Powell is set to step down, and Kevin Warsh is anticipated to take over. That transition could act as a trigger for the market shakeout, according to the analyst's note.
Q3: bottom and distrust
In the third quarter, Aralez predicts Bitcoin will hit its final cycle bottom. Whales may begin reaccumulating at those lows. It's also when peak distrust toward cryptocurrencies is expected, with sentiment turning largely negative across the board.
The Q4 reversal
The outlook shifts hard in Q4 2026. Bitcoin is predicted to start an uptrend toward $90,000 and above $109,000. Aralez cites mass artificial intelligence integrations as a source of excitement and adoption. New narratives, the analyst says, are expected to draw millions of participants back into the market. On top of that, the beginning of quantitative easing is anticipated amid global crisis conditions — a backdrop that could fuel risk-on assets.
For now, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can hold above key levels as the second quarter wears on. The Fed transition and any shift in monetary policy could accelerate the timeline Aralez laid out.
