A new forecast from analyst Aralez lays out a path for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026 — a roughly 30% gain from current levels below six figures. The prediction comes after what Aralez describes as a capitulation phase in Q3 2025, followed by whale accumulation and a shift in macro winds.
Q2 2025 drop and Q3 bottom
Aralez had earlier warned of a drop to $58,000 in Q2 2025, with Ethereum also moving lower that quarter. The S&P 500 was forecast to slide to 7,400 in the same period. But the real pain, according to the analyst, hit in Q3 2025, when Bitcoin entered a capitulation phase. That's where the bottom formed, and whales started buying.
Fed rate cuts and the pivot
What changes the trajectory? Aralez expects the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates, transitioning volatility in Q3 2025 into a new uptrend. Lower rates tend to push capital into risk assets, and crypto has historically benefited from a loose monetary environment.
AI narrative rising
The analyst also points to the AI narrative dominating market attention, drawing in fresh liquidity. That inflow, combined with the rate cuts, should drive prices higher, Aralez argues. The timing matters: whale accumulation from the Q3 bottom sets the stage for a sustained rally.
Target for end of 2026
By the end of this year, Aralez expects Bitcoin to hit $100,000, implying a 30% increase from where it trades now. That's a recovery from the depths of 2025, but still below the all-time highs many hoped for. Still, for a market that weathered a brutal correction, the forecast offers a clear upside ceiling — at least for now.
