Artemis CEO Jon Ma released an open-source financial model for Coinbase on Thursday, laying out a bull case that values the crypto exchange at $300 billion by 2031. The model projects the company could capture massive revenue from stablecoins and AI-driven commerce, but also includes a bear case that puts the valuation near $70 billion.
What the bull case assumes
The optimistic scenario hinges on three big bets: stablecoin supply hitting $3 trillion by 2031, AI agents driving $7.5 trillion in annual spending by that year, and Coinbase transforming into a subscription-first business. Under that outlook, Coinbase would generate about $23 billion in revenue and $10 billion in net income in 2031. A 30x price-to-earnings multiple on that profit yields the $300 billion market cap — more than six times where it trades today.
Ma’s model tracks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s projection that total stablecoin supply will reach $3 trillion by 2030. Artemis assumes USD Coin (USDC) grabs 30% of that supply, distributed heavily through Coinbase’s partnership with Circle. The company currently earns a cut of USDC’s reserve yield and could earn more from transaction fees as supply grows.
AI agents as a revenue stream
The model also pegs Coinbase as the central winner of what Ma calls “AI-native finance.” Artemis estimates that AI agents — automated programs that make purchases and manage assets — will spend $7.5 trillion annually by 2031. Coinbase would capture just one basis point (0.01%) of that flow, which alone would bring in $750 million in revenue.
Coinbase has already started positioning itself for that world. It co-stewards the x402 protocol with Cloudflare under the Linux Foundation, a standard that lets agents make micropayments. The company also launched Agentic Wallets, tools designed to settle machine-to-machine payments without human intervention.
To become more agile, Coinbase cut about 14% of its staff and restructured into AI-native pods, flattening its hierarchy. The shift also shows in its revenue mix: subscription and services revenue today makes up roughly 40% of total revenue. By 2031, the bull case expects that to climb to 65%.
The bear case and what’s next
Not every scenario is rosy. The same model includes a bear case that values Coinbase near $70 billion — roughly where it trades now. The model is open-source, meaning anyone can tweak the assumptions and see how they change the numbers. Ma didn't say whether he personally holds Coinbase stock or whether Artemis plans to update the model regularly.
The release comes as Coinbase faces regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. and increasing competition from international exchanges. Whether the bull case holds up will depend on stablecoin adoption, AI agent growth, and how fast Coinbase can shift its revenue away from volatile trading fees.
