Arthur Hayes has a $100,000 bet riding on Hyperliquid. The former BitMEX CEO put the money down that HYPE will beat every other top-10 cryptocurrency in USD terms by the end of 2026. Kyle Samani accepted the wager, picking Solana as his contender.
Meanwhile, HYPE hit a new all-time high of $74.18 on Monday, finally cracking the $70 level. At the time of writing it trades at $71.80, up 16.8% over the past week.
The $100,000 wager
Hayes announced the bet publicly, putting HYPE against the entire top-10 field. Samani, a Multicoin Capital co-founder, countered with Solana. The spread is relatively narrow — Solana holds the fourth-largest market cap, while HYPE just slipped into the top 10 after flipping Dogecoin.
Hayes has been bullish on Hyperliquid for months. He predicted in early 2025 that HYPE would reach $150 by August 2026 from a $30 base. Since that call, the token has roughly 2.4x'd. It still needs to double again to hit $150 by August, but the trajectory has been steep.
Hyperliquid flips Dogecoin
The Monday rally pushed HYPE past Dogecoin in market cap, securing it a top-10 spot. That's a symbolic milestone for a token that launched its mainnet less than two years ago. Hyperliquid is a decentralized derivatives exchange, and its native token serves as collateral and governance — a different use case than the meme-powered DOGE.
The timing isn't trivial either. Hayes's bet runs through the end of 2026, so the flip adds real weight to his side of the wager. If HYPE holds its position and outperforms its peers, he collects the $100,000.
Analyst walks back sell signal
On-chain analyst Ali Martinez had warned of a potential market top for HYPE, citing TD Sequential sell signals and overheated RSI and CMO readings. That call lasted about as long as a candle wick.
Martinez later retracted, saying the sell signals had been invalidated. He then set new upside targets of $97 and $163. The higher figure is within striking distance of Hayes's $150 prediction, though Martinez bases his analysis purely on technicals rather than a fundamental thesis.
HYPE is now roughly 35% away from the first target. Whether it gets there — and whether Hayes's bet pays off — will depend on whether the rally can sustain momentum through the second half of the year. The wager has a concrete deadline: December 31, 2026.
