Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO turned macro commentator, says Bitcoin's bull market kicked off on February 28, 2024 — the day the US struck Iran — and he's calling for a run to $126,000. In a new post published this week, Hayes laid out three overlapping macro forces he believes will push the price higher: AI infrastructure spending framed as a national-security priority, ongoing military escalation, and a global shift away from just-in-time supply chains that keeps liquidity expanding. He also named three specific altcoins he's betting on.
Why Hayes sees $90,000 as a key level
Hayes pegged $60,000 as Bitcoin's recent bottom and identified $90,000 as the price where the rally could intensify. His reasoning: call option overwriters have sold coverage around that level, and if the price breaks through, they'll be forced to buy back, adding fuel. He didn't offer a precise timeline, but the $126,000 target sits well above the current range.
The three macro trends behind the call
Hayes points to AI infrastructure spending, which he argues has become a national-security imperative for the US and China. That spending, he says, is structurally inflationary — invoking Jevons Paradox (cheaper intelligence drives more compute consumption) and the Red Queen Effect (rivals must keep spending just to stay in the race). The second force: military escalation, specifically the US-Iran conflict, which he says marked the start of a new political regime for money creation. Third: the dismantling of just-in-time supply chains, which is expanding dollar and yuan liquidity as governments retool for resilience.
Why AI spending is structurally inflationary
Hayes argued that AI investment won't cool off easily. He expects liquidity expansion to continue until one of two things happens: markets reject a major AI financing event, or the 2028 US presidential campaign rhetoric shifts against AI-driven inflation. Until then, central banks and treasuries are likely to keep accommodating the spending, in his view.
Hayes' altcoin bets: HYPE, ZEC, NEAR
Hayes recommended three specific crypto investments: Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC), and NEAR. He described NEAR's thesis as combining privacy with the protocol's intents mechanism to drive cash flow. No price targets were given for the alts, but the picks reflect his conviction that the macro environment favors certain niche plays.
The real test for Hayes' thesis: whether AI financing keeps getting absorbed by markets without a revolt, or whether the 2028 election cycle shifts the political winds. For now, he's betting on more liquidity, not less.
