Arthur Hayes thinks the next bitcoin bull market is already here. The BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO released a research note this week arguing that the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback program is the spark. Bitcoin, meanwhile, trades above $80,000 for a second straight day.
The bond buyback thesis
In the note, Hayes lays out a simple case: the Treasury's bigger buyback program is a liquidity event. More repurchases mean more money flowing through the financial system, and that's the kind of fuel bitcoin has historically run on. He's not calling for a modest climb. He's saying this is the start of a new bull phase.
The timing stands out. The expanded buyback has been on investors' radar for weeks, but Hayes is putting a definitive label on it. The move, in his view, isn't just a technical tweak. It's a shift in how the Treasury handles its own debt, and that shift is what he believes triggers the rally.
Bitcoin's price holds
Bitcoin has stayed above $80,000 for the second day in a row. That's a level that took months to reach, and holding it matters. Hayes's note landed in the middle of that price action, giving his words some immediate weight.
The question is whether the market believes it. A day or two above $80,000 doesn't prove a bull market, but it does align with the kind of move Hayes is describing. If the Treasury's buyback program really is the catalyst, the price is already responding.
There's also the matter of who's talking. Hayes isn't a quiet commentator. He's a co-founder of one of the oldest crypto exchanges and someone who's made big calls before. His research notes get read closely, and this one is no exception.
The next few weeks will show whether the price follows his thesis or fades. Bitcoin has been here before—above a round number one day, back below it the next. The sustained hold above $80,000 is what would make this note look prescient.
For now, Hayes's argument is on the table and the chart is backing it up. That's a rare alignment, and it's exactly why the timing of this note is hard to ignore.
