Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, is warning that a crack in AI-related equities could drag cryptocurrency markets lower before a fresh wave of central-bank liquidity eventually lifts Bitcoin. Maelstrom has already trimmed several crypto positions, according to a market note from Hayes this week, though the firm is holding onto Bitcoin and Ether as core bets.
The AI-crypto spillover
Hayes draws a direct line from AI companies to crypto via the money supply. AI firms have issued roughly $1.5 trillion in debt since November 2022 — the same amount U.S. M2 grew over that period. That wall of borrowing fueled Nvidia's 11x run while Bitcoin climbed from about $15,000 after FTX to roughly $125,000 by October 2025. But since Bitcoin's all-time high, BTC has fallen 50% while Nvidia added another 10%. An AI correction, Hayes argues, would hurt bank lending, tighten credit, and destroy speculative capital — until policymakers respond with more liquidity.
Energy and geopolitics
A central macro variable for Hayes is the US-Iran conflict and reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher hydrocarbon prices could feed inflation and accelerate the unraveling of AI-linked stocks. Three catalysts he cites for the AI bubble to break: persistent energy-cost pressure, large supply from planned IPOs by SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — SpaceX alone carries a $1.8 trillion valuation at roughly 100x sales, with only 4-5% of shares floated — and anti-AI rhetoric from Donald Trump.
Fed meeting coming
The Federal Reserve's June 16-17 meeting is next week, and Hayes expects a 'hawkish hold' — rate hikes paused, but language that adds headwinds for risk assets including AI equities and crypto. That timing isn't great for a market already on edge about the AI trade.
What Maelstrom is doing
Hayes' firm has moved long US-listed energy producers and exited positions in HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC. The Zcash exit was tied to the Orchard Pool bug. Bitcoin and Ether remain core holdings. Hayes' base case: a near-term drawdown if the AI bubble bursts, followed by a stronger rebound after a major liquidity injection — but that rebound doesn't start until policymakers act.
The next concrete test is the Fed decision on June 17. If the hawkish hold materializes as expected, the pressure on both AI and crypto could intensify before any rescue arrives.
