Avalanche's AVAX token is trading at $6.29, pinned below every major moving average in a full bearish stack. A price target set by CoinCodex back in January now appears invalid, and the next three days are described by analysts as binary for the token's direction. The critical support level to watch is $5.98.
Why the CoinCodex target fell apart
CoinCodex had projected a rally for AVAX earlier this year, but the token never hit that mark. Instead, steady selling pressure pushed it lower. The target, set in January, now looks like a relic of a different market environment. Without a catalyst to reverse the trend, that forecast has been overtaken by events.
The bearish moving average stack
AVAX is trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. On a chart, that's a bearish stack — each shorter-term average sits under the longer-term one, and all of them slope downward. That pattern usually signals that sellers are in control. For buyers to regain confidence, they'd need to push the price back above at least one of those lines, but right now there's no sign of that happening.
What the next 72 hours could bring
The next 72 hours are being called binary: either the $5.98 support holds and AVAX stages a bounce, or it breaks and the token falls further. A break below $5.98 would open the door to lower lows, possibly toward $5.50 or even $5.00. If support holds, a relief rally could test resistance around $6.50 or $7.00, but that would require a sudden shift in buying volume.
No major announcements or protocol upgrades are scheduled in that window. The price action will depend on broader market sentiment and whether Bitcoin can stabilize. If BTC drops, altcoins like AVAX usually take a bigger hit.
The unresolved question is whether $5.98 acts as a floor or just a waypoint on the way down. That answer should come within the next three days.
