Avalanche's native token AVAX is changing hands at $6.68, with technical signals pointing to more downside. The MACD momentum indicator is flatlined, showing no clear directional push, while the token sits 34% below its 200-day simple moving average. Despite these bearish signs, over 70% of both retail and smart money positions are long.
Over 70% of Positions Are Long
Data from market intelligence platforms shows that more than 70% of traders — both retail and institutional — are betting on AVAX to rise. That heavy concentration of long positions often acts as a contrarian signal, raising the risk of a long squeeze if the price drops further. When too many traders are on one side, any downward move can trigger cascading liquidations.
MACD Flatlined
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is currently flat, meaning there is no clear momentum in either direction. A flat MACD typically suggests indecision or consolidation. In this case, given the price is already in a downtrend, the lack of bullish momentum reinforces the bearish outlook.
34% Below the 200-Day SMA
AVAX is trading 34% below its 200-day simple moving average, a key long-term trend indicator. Being this far below the 200-day SMA is unusual and often signals that the asset is oversold. However, it also means the token has a long way to go before reclaiming its longer-term average, and the current price level may not be a strong support.
Downside Target at $6.05
Based on the current technical setup, the path of least resistance is predicted to be downward to $6.05. That would represent a further decline of about 9.4% from the current $6.68 level. Whether the heavy long positioning can absorb that selling pressure or will instead accelerate the drop remains the key question for traders watching AVAX.
