Rick Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies, expects the US 10-year Treasury yield to climb toward 6.07% from its current level around 4.78%. That would put the benchmark bond yield in territory it hasn't visited since April 2000 — before the Bitcoin white paper was even published. For a market built on the idea that endless government debt will eventually crush fiat currencies, the move is a problem.
The 6% call
Bensignor isn't calling for a return to the early 1980s, when the 10-year peaked at 15.8%. He's pointing at a multi-year uptrend line and a 200-week moving average that flagged the recent low near 4%. Even 5.6% would mark a minimum upside target, he argues, and 6.07% is the level where his technical setup points.
His reasoning goes back further than most chartists bother to look. The yield bottomed near 40 basis points, which puts 8.11% at the exact halfway point of the historic range. Bensignor doesn't expect a return to that midpoint, but he's clear that today's borrowers underestimate how high rates can climb. His first mortgage exceeded 7% in 1987, and he says the current generation has no memory of that world.
Rising yields typically pull capital toward safer, income-generating assets. That pressures Bitcoin's debasement trade narrative — the story that says investors need a hard asset to hedge against fiscal recklessness. US federal debt has passed $40 trillion, yet Bitcoin trades near $80,138, roughly 37% below its record high. If yields grind higher while Bitcoin stays range-bound, the gap could widen, deepening the disconnect between debt fears and BTC's price.
The timing isn't great. Recent bond market turmoil has already shown how quickly yield spikes can spill into other markets, and Bitcoin has never operated in a world where the 10-year sits near 6%.
The counterargument
Not everyone agrees the relationship is that simple. Yields can rise for different reasons — inflation, fiscal stress, or resilient growth — and not all of those dent Bitcoin's scarcity pitch. A growth-driven rise in yields might even coexist with a stronger risk appetite that lifts crypto along with equities.
But Bensignor's target isn't a forecast for next week. It's a structural call about where the bond market is headed over time, and it sets up a test Bitcoin has never faced.
What to watch
The 10-year is climbing toward territory Bitcoin has never operated in. Watch whether the yield breaks above 4.78% on a sustained basis, and whether Bitcoin's range-bound trading starts to crack if it does.
