Bernstein raised its price target on Robinhood to $160 this week, betting that prediction markets will become the brokerage's next big revenue engine. The analyst firm forecasts prediction-market revenue could jump from $150 million to $1.7 billion by 2028 — and eventually eclipse the company's crypto revenue.
The $160 target
Bernstein's new price target implies roughly 20% upside from Robinhood's current trading level. The call comes as the brokerage has been pushing deeper into event contracts, letting users bet on everything from election outcomes to sports results. Robinhood's shares have already rallied this year on strong crypto trading volumes, but Bernstein sees prediction markets as the next catalyst.
Prediction markets vs. crypto revenue
The numbers are stark. Bernstein projects prediction-market revenue will grow more than tenfold in two years, from $150 million to $1.7 billion. At that pace, it could surpass Robinhood's crypto revenue, which has been volatile and tied to bitcoin's price swings. Prediction markets offer a steadier, fee-based income stream — and one that regulators have so far treated more leniently than crypto spot trading.
What's driving the forecast
Robinhood has been expanding its event-contract offerings, adding new categories and rolling out the product to more users. The 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race are expected to drive heavy volume. Bernstein's model assumes Robinhood captures a significant share of a rapidly growing market, though it didn't specify the total addressable market.
The firm also noted that prediction markets carry lower operational risk than crypto — no blockchain forks, no wallet hacks, no sudden regulatory bans. That could make the revenue stream more predictable for investors.
The long bet
Whether prediction markets actually overtake crypto revenue by 2028 depends on a few things: user adoption, regulatory clarity, and whether Robinhood can fend off competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket. Bernstein is betting yes. The $160 target reflects that conviction — but it's a two-year-out forecast, and a lot can change in crypto markets before then.
