Bernstein is out with a fresh warning for crypto markets. The research firm says a further decline is likely if the Clarity Act fails to pass this year. The prediction comes as the industry waits on a key piece of U.S. legislation that would set clearer rules for digital assets.
The Clarity Act deadline
The Clarity Act has been a central focus for crypto firms and investors. It aims to define which tokens are securities and which are commodities, and to give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission more authority. But the bill's path through Congress has been uncertain. Bernstein now says that if it doesn't become law in 2026, markets could take another hit.
What Bernstein expects
The firm didn't mince words. A failed Clarity Act would remove a key catalyst for regulatory certainty. Without that, Bernstein sees more downside pressure on prices. The timing isn't great — the market has already been under strain this year.
Regulators won't wait
But Bernstein also expects U.S. regulators to accelerate their own rulemaking regardless of the Clarity Act's outcome. That means the Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC could move faster to set boundaries on their own. Whether that helps or hurts the market depends on how aggressive those rules turn out to be.
For now, the clock is ticking. The Clarity Act's fate will likely be decided in the next few months. If it stalls, Bernstein's forecast of further decline may become the baseline.
