Binance's attempt to secure a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license through its Greek subsidiary is expected to be rejected, according to two people familiar with the matter. The decision threatens the exchange's ability to serve clients in the European Union starting in July. Separately, prediction market Polymarket shows 99.95% odds that Bitcoin will dip to $64,000.
The Greek license bid
Binance had sought authorization from Greek regulators to operate across the EU under the bloc's new MiCA framework. MiCA, which takes full effect in July, requires crypto firms to hold a license from any EU member state to offer services throughout the region. The rejection — if confirmed — would block one of the world's largest exchanges from the EU market.
Neither Binance nor Greek authorities have publicly commented on the status of the application. The people familiar with the matter spoke on condition of anonymity because the process is not yet final. The exact reasons for the expected rejection remain unclear, but regulatory concerns around compliance and anti-money laundering controls have been a recurring issue for the exchange globally.
What rejection means for EU customers
If the bid fails, Binance will not be able to legally serve EU users under MiCA after July. The company would need to find another EU member state to sponsor its license or restructure its regional operations. Without a MiCA license, Binance could face restrictions similar to those imposed in other jurisdictions where it lost authorization, such as the Netherlands and Belgium.
EU clients currently using Binance may face account closures or forced migration to alternative platforms. The company has not announced any contingency plans. The July deadline adds pressure: firms without a license must cease regulated activities in the EU, though some transitional arrangements may exist depending on national rules.
Polymarket odds point to a Bitcoin dip
In a separate market signal, the prediction platform Polymarket assigns a 99.95% probability that Bitcoin's price will fall to $64,000 at some point. The bet reflects a widespread expectation of a pullback after Bitcoin's recent rally above $70,000. Polymarket users have wagered on the exact trigger level — $64,000 is seen as a key support zone that could be tested if selling pressure continues.
The odds are based on user-generated markets, not institutional forecasts. Still, such high probabilities suggest traders are heavily positioned for a short-term decline. The dip prediction comes amid broader market uncertainty linked to regulatory moves and macroeconomic data.
The rejection of Binance's Greek MiCA bid is expected to be formalized in the coming weeks. The exchange could appeal or pivot to another EU jurisdiction, but time is short. For Bitcoin, the $64,000 level remains a focal point for traders watching whether the Polymarket bet will materialize.
