Binance now controls about 85.1 million Chainlink tokens — worth roughly $766 million — a stash that represents two-thirds of all LINK held on exchanges. The concentration comes as LINK trades around $9, stuck in a downtrend that’s seen it lose more than 70% from late-2024 highs near $30.
A Shrinking Reserve on the Largest Exchange
Analyst MorenoDV tracked what they describe as a structural decline in Binance’s LINK reserves. From a peak near 145 million tokens in 2022-2023, the exchange’s balance has slid along a descending channel to the current 85 million. That drop — roughly 41% — suggests Binance is either moving holdings off-platform or letting them drain to other wallets.
Of the 128.26 million LINK held across all exchanges, Binance’s 85.1 million gives it a 66.4% share. No other exchange comes close.
Deposit Spikes That Don’t Stick
Short bursts of LINK deposits into Binance have become a pattern. But those spikes are temporary, and they’re often followed by weaker price closes over the next one to three days. That points to sell pressure in the immediate aftermath — not accumulation.
Still, not every deposit ends in a sale. A significant portion of the LINK that lands on Binance gets withdrawn again shortly after, either to self-custody wallets or to other exchanges, without being converted into selling. The token flows are frequent and fast, but the endgame isn’t always a trade.
Price Levels That Matter
Chainlink’s price action looks fragile. The token currently trades below its 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week moving averages, with resistance sitting near $14 and $15.50. A key support zone stretches from $8.50 to $9.50. If that floor cracks, the next stop could be the 2023 consolidation range between $6 and $7 — a level LINK hasn’t visited in more than a year.
On the upside, reclaiming $10.50 would be the first signal that buyers are starting to regain control. Until then, the structural decline in exchange reserves and the persistent deposit spikes keep the pressure on.
The question now is whether the $8.50 support holds. If it doesn’t, the path to $6 opens. If it does, the market gets a chance to test whether the sellers have finally exhausted themselves.
