Binance's XRP reserves have fallen to roughly 2.61 billion tokens, their lowest level since February 2026, even as the token's price reversed a recent slide to trade around $1.11. The shrinking exchange balance — often read as a bullish sign that holders are moving coins to private wallets — hasn't yet translated into sustained buying momentum. CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain noted that no meaningful inflows have replenished Binance's stockpile in recent months, leaving the exchange's supply at a five-month low.
Binance's XRP stockpile keeps shrinking
The drop in reserves comes as XRP had been falling to around $1.06, suggesting that liquidity and sentiment outweighed the declining supply. The exchange's CVD Confirmation Score sits at -6.93 million, meaning sell orders have consistently outweighed buys as XRP fell from above $2.00 to $1.07. Arab Chain's 30-day Price-CVD Confirmation Score is near 0.84 — reasonably healthy, he says, but not enough to confirm a shift in buying demand.
Price action: a mixed picture
XRP is up more than 3% in the last 24 hours, but the broader trend remains grim. The token is down 7% over the past month and more than 61% over the past year. Daily trading volume jumped 31% to $1.26 billion, though that spike alone doesn't signal a trend reversal. The price is hovering just above a critical support level at $1.08.
What analysts are watching
Analyst Diana warns that losing the $1.08 support could send XRP to the $0.90–$0.93 zone, then to a macro support at $0.87. CasiTrades views a drop to $0.87 as the tail end of a yearlong correction — painful but potentially the bottom. On the flip side, Crypto Patel argues XRP is tracing a pattern that historically preceded rallies of over 1,000%. Investor Celal Kucuker points to a 500% monthly gain two years ago as reason to expect $7 by year-end.
The bullish case — and the risks
Falling exchange reserves are typically a bullish signal, but the CVD data shows persistent sell pressure. The 30-day confirmation score suggests the market hasn't decisively turned. For now, the $1.08 level is the line in the sand. If it holds, the reserve drawdown could eventually fuel a rally. If it breaks, the next stop is $0.87 — and that's where the yearlong correction might finally end.
