Bitcoin's BIP-110 soft fork proposal is struggling to attract miner support. Over the past 60 days, just 0.6% of mined blocks have signaled readiness for the upgrade, according to an analysis by a developer who runs a private network crawler. The author cautions that the proposal is far from inevitable and could trigger a chain split if pushed through without enough hashrate backing. The data, collected from the author's own crawler as well as public sources, shows a stark lack of consensus among miners.
Low signaling, mixed node support
The miner signaling figure—0.6%—is well below the thresholds typically associated with successful soft fork activations. Meanwhile, node support for BIP-110 varies widely depending on which crawler you consult. Estimates range from 7% to 15% of reachable Bitcoin nodes signaling readiness, though the author’s own crawler reports a lower number. The wide range of node support estimates further complicates the picture, as different crawlers use different methodologies to count signaling nodes.
Risk of a chain split
Adopting BIP-110 without adequate miner approval carries real risks, the author warns. In a minority hashrate scenario, the upgrade could create a chain split, forcing miners who adopt the new rules onto a fork with limited economic activity. The author advises miners to signal only if they genuinely support the change, and to watch the network closely around block 961632—a key milestone in the activation timeline.
Lessons from SegWit
The author draws a contrast with the SegWit activation saga. SegWit’s user-activated soft fork (UASF) had roughly one-third of the network’s hashrate signaling support before entering UASF territory—a far cry from BIP-110's current 0.6%. That historical precedent suggests that meaningful miner buy-in is essential for a smooth activation. Without it, the risk of a contentious fork increases. The author notes that BIP-110 is not a foregone conclusion and can still fail if support does not materialize.
As block 961632 approaches, the question is whether miner support will pick up—or whether the proposal will quietly fizzle out. The author’s advice is clear: signal only if you support it, and keep an eye on the chain.
