Crypto investment firm BIT published a market update on July 17 questioning whether Bitcoin's June low of $57,700 marked the end of the bear market. The analysis comes as Bitcoin trades near $63,000, down about 3% in the past 24 hours and over 50% below its all-time high. A brief pop above $65,000 after lower-than-expected US CPI data fizzled quickly, leaving the market in a familiar holding pattern.
The $57.7K question
BIT's update revisits the firm's earlier Elliott Wave forecast from June 12, which predicted a three-wave correction pattern starting in October 2025. That call saw an initial selloff to $60,000–$69,000, a rebound to $80,000–$90,000, and a final Wave C drop during the 2026 FIFA World Cup — which ends today, July 19. Bitcoin did fall from around $97,000 in February to $62,900, then recovered to about $82,000 in May before sliding again. But BIT now admits it underestimated two big factors: the US-Iran conflict and the hawkish stance of new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, both of which pushed inflation higher than expected.
Signals that say 'maybe bottom'
Despite the miss, BIT points to several technical signals that could support a bottom. Sentiment is historically depressed, stochastic readings are oversold, and Bitcoin is trading well below its weekly moving average. The firm now watches the 21-week moving average as the key gauge for a return to a longer-term uptrend. If Bitcoin can reclaim that level, the argument for a bottom gets stronger.
Why the bottom might not be in
Not everyone is convinced. CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech argues the low isn't in yet, pointing to a sharp drop in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows this year. Cumulative net outflows stand at about 120,000 BTC in 2026, a stark reversal from inflows of over 500,000 BTC in 2024 and 250,000 BTC in 2025. That kind of institutional demand drying up doesn't usually happen at a market bottom, IT Tech says.
For now, the debate is unresolved. BIT is focused on the 21-week moving average as the next concrete signal. Until that level is tested — or broken — the question of whether $57,700 was the bottom or just a pause will keep traders guessing.
