Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader this week laid out a six-step Bitcoin market cycle that could put prices as low as $45,000 before the next major rally. Three phases are already complete — distribution, small consolidation, and the start of a bear market — and the current price action since late January sits in what he calls the redistribution phase.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,060 in October 2025, then slid into a bear market that wiped out more than half its value. The analyst's framework now points to a potential further drop into an accumulation zone between $45,000 and $59,000 — but only if the $78,000 support level fails to hold.
The $78,000 line in the sand
That $78,000 level is the pivot in Merlijn's model. If Bitcoin can stay above it, the redistribution phase ends early and the cycle jumps straight to re-accumulation — the phase that historically precedes a major bull run. A break below it, though, would trigger the crash leg he projects down to the $45k–$59k accumulation range.
On May 18, Bitcoin briefly slipped under $77,000 before recovering to around $77,500 as of this writing. It's sitting right on the edge, and the next few days could decide which path the cycle takes.
What a drop to accumulation would look like
If the crash materializes, the numbers get rough. A fall to $59,000 would mean a 23.8% decline from current levels. Going all the way to $45,000 would be a 42% correction — deep, but within the bounds of previous Bitcoin bear markets.
Merlijn's framework doesn't predict the exact bottom within that $45k–$59k band. The accumulation phase is wide, and the actual low would depend on selling pressure and macro conditions. The range itself represents the zone where the analyst expects large holders to start accumulating again after the distribution and redistribution phases flush out weak hands.
Where we are now
The redistribution phase has been playing out since late January. Prices have been choppy, with rallies followed by sharp pullbacks — classic redistribution behavior. The May 18 dip below $77,000 was the latest test of the $78,000 line, and the recovery to $77,500 hasn't cleared it comfortably.
That means the question is still open: will the level hold and skip the crash, or will it break and send Bitcoin into the accumulation zone? The answer likely comes in the next few trading sessions, barring any macro shock that shifts the timeline.
No one's calling this a sure thing — cycle models are maps, not guarantees. But the framework gives traders a concrete set of levels to watch. At $78,000, the market is at a decision point that Merlijn thinks determines whether the next big run starts now or after a deeper bleed.
