Bitcoin is trading around $81,200 Wednesday, up in the last 24 hours — but analysts are sharply divided on where it goes next. One sees a run to $93,000. The other warns of a drop all the way back to $63,000.
Sherlock's bearish pattern
The analyst known as Sherlock is watching for a short setup near $80,000, but only if Bitcoin fails to push higher. He says the ideal short zone is $84,000–$85,000 — a level he expects could trigger a short squeeze before turning into a reversal.
Sherlock's chart shows a potential crash to about $63,000 within a month after BTC touches $85,000. He bases this on a historical pattern: since 2020, Bitcoin has recorded a red monthly candle in May when price failed to break above April's high in the first five days of May. This year, April's high was $79,485. If BTC can't clear that level before May 5, he advises waiting and not shorting immediately.
Importantly, the pattern broke in 2024 — BTC cleared April's high on May 1 and rallied 16.9% to a local high of $111,980 by May 22. So it's not a guarantee.
Van de Poppe's bullish case
Michaël van de Poppe sees the opposite. He says Bitcoin broke above $79,000, signaling an upward trend, and looks ready for more upside. He points to over $1.6 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows since the start of the month as a key bullish driver.
Van de Poppe also argues a rotation from gold into Bitcoin is happening, and the uptrend isn't likely to stall soon. He sees room for a rally between $86,000 and $88,000, and most likely between $91,000 and $93,000.
He does note that intraday corrections are possible, but the broader move is higher.
What to watch next
The two outlooks hinge on the same level: April's high at $79,485. Sherlock wants to see how Bitcoin behaves around $84,000–$85,000; van de Poppe thinks the real test is above $86,000. With ETF money flowing in and gold rotating out, the next few days will show which pattern holds — the historical one or the exception.
