Bitcoin pushed back above $80,000 this week for the first time since late January. But the recovery isn't convincing everyone. Crypto analyst Leshka warned the move looks like a bear flag, and Bitcoin could reverse hard by June.
The bear flag pattern
Leshka pointed to an ascending channel that's been forming since February's low around $60,000. That channel, on the daily chart, is what chartists call a bear flag — a pattern where price grinds higher in a tight range before breaking lower. The 200-day moving average sits near $82,000, and Bitcoin hasn't managed a daily close above it in seven months. Leshka sees the current rally as one last push into that resistance zone before a reversal.
A historically strong month
May has been good to Bitcoin over the years. The average gain is 18.7%, and the median return sits at 8.32%. Bitcoin is up 7.11% so far this month, roughly in line with the median. It gained 11.1% in both May 2024 and May 2025. But there have been red Mays too — a 35.4% plunge in 2021, a 15.9% drop in 2022, and a 7.10% decline in 2023. Past performance doesn't guarantee anything, especially when a bear flag is waving.
Leshka's projected path shows Bitcoin making one final push to the confluence of resistance and the 200-day moving average, then reversing to the $58,000–$56,000 range by June. That's a drop of roughly 30% from current levels. The timing isn't great — Bitcoin has spent seven months below the 200-day MA, and a failed breakout here would be a strong signal that the bear market isn't over. Whether the flag holds or breaks upward depends on whether buyers can finally clear that $82,000 level.
