Bitcoin's price has punched through the midpoint of its bear flag pattern on the 4-hour chart, putting horizontal support from $76,000 down to $74,000 in the crosshairs. The move follows three failed attempts to break the bottom trendline of a descending channel, with each rejection carving a lower high. Traders are now watching whether the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is converging with the 200-day SMA, will act as a magnet — or a catalyst for a steeper slide.
Technical breakdown
The bear flag, a continuation pattern that typically signals further downside, saw price stage a brief fakeout above its top before a red enveloping candle erased those gains. That candle suggests sellers stepped in aggressively after the false breakout. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen out of its ascending channel and is now being rejected from a yellow RSI-based moving average — a bearish signal that often precedes a momentum shift.
Converging moving averages
Bitcoin is approaching the 50-day SMA, which is rapidly converging with the 200-day SMA. When these two averages tighten, it usually means a big move is brewing. The last time this setup appeared inside a bear flag, the price crashed shortly after the two lines crossed. That's not a guarantee of a repeat, but it gives the current technical picture an extra edge of unease.
Stochastic RSI warning
On the weekly timeframe, the Stochastic RSI indicator lines are poised to dip below the 80.00 level. If they do, the indicator could run all the way down to the 0.00 bottom limit, which historically has mapped to sustained negative price action. It's a longer-term gauge, but the alignment with the daily bear flag makes the risk harder to ignore.
The immediate test is the $76,000–$74,000 support zone. If that fails to hold, there's little standing in the way until the moving averages fully converge. Traders will also be watching whether the weekly Stochastic RSI confirms the drop below 80 — that could lock in a bearish bias for the weeks ahead.
