Two analysts are painting very different pictures of where Bitcoin's bear market bottom might land. Analyst Bee says Bitcoin could still drop to around $46,000 before finding a floor, while Colin is warming to the idea that the worst is already behind us—but he's not ruling out another leg lower. The divergence comes as Bitcoin trades near $81,200, down from weekend highs above $82,000 after hot CPI inflation data rattled markets.
Bee's bear market checklist
Bee, known for tracking Bitcoin's bear cycles, outlined three rules: a bear market lasts at least 350 days, a bottom only forms when price touches the 350-day moving average (MA 350), and the drop always goes further than expected. Right now the MA 350 sits at $47,000—and Bitcoin hasn't touched it yet. Bee's chart suggests a target around $46,000. That's about 43% below today's price. Bee also noted Bitcoin is 65% of the way through the bear cycle. But with U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled, Bee said the macro backdrop puts Bitcoin at risk of another decline.
Colin's guarded optimism
Colin is more open to the idea that the bottom is in than he was a month ago. But if that's the case, he expects Bitcoin to retest range lows between $60,000 and $70,000 later this year. He's also open to the possibility that the cycle bottom hasn't arrived yet, and prices could fall further toward year-end. The key takeaway from Colin: the longer Bitcoin trades sideways or higher, the lower the odds of a lower bear market floor. In other words, time itself may be healing the market.
Macro headwinds mount
Bitcoin rallied above $80,000 and hit $82,000 over the weekend. But that move evaporated after the latest CPI print came in hot, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. On top of that, stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks are adding geopolitical uncertainty. Bee argues that combination is exactly the kind of environment that could trigger another leg down.
Bitcoin is now down in the last 24 hours, hovering around $81,200. The MA 350 at $47,000 remains untouched. If Bee is right, there's still a long way to fall. If Colin is right, the market may need to prove itself by holding above $60,000 through the rest of 2026. Either way, the next few months will tell.
