Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, isn't buying the Bitcoin rally. Despite BTC's recent gains, he says the bear market hasn't ended — and warns a top could come within weeks. His call is based on a historical pattern that played out in 2014, 2018, and 2019, where Bitcoin climbed above key moving averages mid-bear market before resuming the downtrend.
The pattern Cowen sees
Cowen points to three prior cycles where Bitcoin staged a similar rally above moving averages during a bear market, only to roll over again. In each case, the move up was a bear-market rally — not the start of a new bull run. He argues the current playbook still tracks those past cycles closely.
Why the rally could top in weeks
One key metric: the time since the last cycle low. Historically, the gap between cycle lows has ranged from 140 to 174 days. Right now it's day 88. Cowen expects the current rally to peak within weeks, then retrace toward the bull market support band — with a possible low arriving in October. He says he's keeping his 'bear goggles on' despite the strength.
The bullish case — and why it might not hold
There are counterarguments. Bitcoin's year-to-date return is outperforming the average midterm year by a wide margin. It's roughly 10% below its yearly open, compared to a typical 30-35% decline at this stage. BTC has also reclaimed the bull market support band. But Cowen flags a structural difference this time: Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria. Retail interest never returned, and altcoins kept bleeding against BTC throughout the rally. That, he argues, makes the current move less sustainable.
Where we are in the cycle
Cowen's thesis rests on the idea that the bear market isn't done until the pattern plays out fully. He expects Bitcoin's price to peak in the coming weeks, drop back to test the bull market support band, and possibly bottom in October. For now, he's watching the clock — day 88 against a historical range of 140 to 174 days. If the pattern holds, there's still more downside ahead.
