Technical analyst Eric Crown says the Bitcoin bear market is over, and he has the chart to prove it. Bitcoin closed August at $78,581, above Crown's $65,708 threshold — the final confirmation signal he was waiting for. But Crown isn't expecting a smooth ride into October. He calls September a "nothing month" and plans to buy the first dip.
The signal that flipped
Crown's reversal sequence requires a higher low, a retest of the previous high, then a higher high. Bitcoin has the first two, but August's peak at $81,260 stopped beneath the prior weekly lower high near $83,000, making it a slight lower high. That's the one missing piece. Still, the monthly stochastic oscillator crossed up for the first time since January 2023, and Crown's own threshold was cleared with room to spare.
September's track record
Historically, the first 16 days of September carry a median loss of 8.5%, while after the midpoint the median flips positive at 6.5%. The last three Septembers all closed green, with gains of 4%, 7.4%, and 5.4%. Crown expects an early pullback before October takes over, and he's ready to act on it.
Whales and other bulls
Large holders accumulated Bitcoin through the summer. Strive CEO Matt Cole called the bottom in late August. Those aren't the only bullish signals — the monthly stochastic crossover is a momentum shift that hasn't happened in over three years.
The missing higher high
Crown acknowledges the view that Bitcoin should bottom roughly one year after its October top, but he is not positioning for it. Instead, he's watching key pullback zones: the weekly 5 EMA at $73,294, the weekly 21 EMA at $70,923, and an invalidation level at $70,000. If the price holds above those, he'll add to long-term positions on the first September dip.
