Bitcoin climbed back above $66,000 this week after sliding to near $60,000, fueled by a preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran that reduced geopolitical uncertainty across markets.
What sparked the recovery
The bounce took shape as news broke of a preliminary deal between Washington and Tehran. The agreement — still short of a final treaty — was enough to calm fears of a broader Middle East conflict, a risk that had weighed on risk assets for months. Bitcoin benefited from the shift in sentiment, reclaiming the $66K level within hours of the announcement.
Resistance ahead
The rally faces a stiff test. The first significant resistance cluster sits between $65,000 and $67,000 — a zone where selling has emerged before. Above that, the major resistance region lies around $72,000 to $74,000. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin recently formed a rising wedge or flag pattern while climbing from $60K, and current supply on that timeframe stretches from roughly $65.5K to $68K. If bulls can't clear that band, a rejection back toward $62K support is possible.
Technically, the daily timeframe still shows Bitcoin inside a broader corrective structure. The recent bounce hasn't broken that pattern yet.
What on-chain data shows
On-chain metrics remain constructive, but the numbers highlight a split between holder groups. Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of the 1-month to 3-month holder cohort, which sits around $75,000, meaning those short-term buyers are holding unrealized losses. Meanwhile, the 18-month to 2-year cohort's realized price is near $74,000 — Bitcoin is just above that, so longer-term holders are still in profit.
Short-term holders have been underwater since the pullback, and that cohort's behavior will be key to watch if prices approach the $65K-$67K resistance zone. A convincing break above that range could shift sentiment back in their favor. A failure would likely add to selling pressure.
For now, the market is pricing in the peace dividend. The next few trading sessions will show whether that's enough to break out of the corrective range or just another relief rally before more downside.
