Bitcoin slid to $61,100 on Wednesday, losing 3% in 24 hours and dragging its weekly decline to 6.9%. The move broke below the February low around $61,000–$62,000 — a level traders had been watching as a structural floor. The trigger? A batch of economic data that pushed rate-cut hopes further into the distance.
A structural breakdown
The February low was more than a round number; it marked the bottom of a consolidation range that had held for months. Now that it's gone, the next support sits in the $55,000 to $58,000 zone from mid-2024. Bitcoin briefly rallied near $62,500 after the initial drop but couldn't attract real spot buying — a telling sign for anyone hoping for a quick bounce. To stabilize, bulls need to reclaim the $64,000–$65,000 area; $68,000 is the level that would signal a genuine recovery.
The macro headwind
May non-farm payrolls came in at 172,000, well above the consensus estimate of 130,000, while April's figure was revised up to 214,000. That strength, combined with rising Treasury yields — the 10-year now at 4.54% — has markets pricing a 75.5% probability of rate hikes before year-end. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to hold rates through all of 2026, with the first cuts not arriving until June and December 2027. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces his first big test at the June 17–18 FOMC meeting: hold or hike. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned this week the central bank “may need to act soon.” Wall Street Journal correspondent Nick Timiraos summed it up bluntly: the labor market has firmed up, and rate cuts are off the original timeline.
ETF outflows and a rare Strategy sale
Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerated as the selling picked up. Diana Pires of sFOX noted that spot demand has not returned meaningfully — a shift from earlier in the year when ETF inflows were a steady support. Elsewhere, Strategy — formerly MicroStrategy — executed its first BTC sale since 2022. The timing isn't great: the company's last sale came near the depths of the bear market, and seeing them sell into this weakness adds an extra layer of caution.
Correlation with gold wobbles
Gold fell 2% to below $4,200 an ounce, adding to the risk-off mood. The rolling 180-day correlation between bitcoin and gold has climbed toward 0.6, but CryptoQuant data also show readings as low as –0.88, suggesting the relationship is far from stable. When both assets are dropping together, the haven narrative takes a hit; when they decouple, nobody can lean on the correlation for direction. For now, both are getting hit by the same macro current.
More than $500 million in bearish bets were liquidated as the drop accelerated, a reminder that volatility cuts both ways. The next concrete event is the FOMC decision on June 18. Whether Warsh holds or hikes will set the tone for the rest of the quarter, and bitcoin's ability to hold above $55,000 will be tested either way.
