Bitcoin's price broke below a small bear flag on Monday, extending the selloff that started late last week. The breakdown candle touched a convergence where the bottom of a larger 4-month bear flag meets the $77,760 horizontal support level. So far, the new 4-hour candle is holding that support, but the daily chart shows BTC threatening to slip under its 100-day SMA.
Two bear flags, one breakdown
Last week, Bitcoin hit the lower boundary of a 4-month bear flag. That led to a brief consolidation — and the formation of a second, smaller bear flag. That second flag just broke to the downside. The measured move from this smaller pattern would bring BTC to around $68,700, just below the $69,000 horizontal support level.
Daily and weekly signals align
On the daily chart, the RSI is sliding inside a descending channel. If the selloff accelerates, the RSI could bottom out around the time Bitcoin reaches the last decent horizontal support before the ultimate floor at $66,000. The weekly chart, however, still offers a glimmer of hope: the bottom of the original bear flag coincides with a good support level at $72,700, and a bounce from there isn't ruled out.
But the weekly Stochastic RSI has just crossed down through the key 80.00 level and is heading back to the bottom. That suggests momentum is turning bearish on the longer timeframe.
What a full measured move looks like
If the current breakdown turns into a full crash, the complete measured move from the top of the larger bear flag would target $44,700 — a 46% drop from the flag's top. Compared with previous bear markets, the timeline has room to run, likely stretching into Q4 of this year.
For now, the $77,760 level is the line in the sand. If it breaks, the next serious support is $72,700. Below that, $66,000 and then the measured move targets come into play. This article is for informational purposes only and not intended as investment advice.
