Bitcoin dipped below a critical on-chain metric this week, briefly crossing a line that one analyst says could trigger a bear market. Crypto analyst Darkfost flagged on May 29 that Bitcoin's realized price excluding supply older than seven years — the average cost basis for active holders — sits at $72,400. After starting the week near $78,000, BTC fell below that level before rebounding to consolidate around $73,500. At publication, Bitcoin is trading at $73,540, down 0.4% over the past 24 hours.
What the $72,400 level means
The realized price excluding >7-year supply isolates the cost basis of coins that have moved in the last seven years. It's a way to strip out long-dormant wallets and focus on traders and investors who are actually active in the market. When the spot price falls below that mark, a significant portion of holders are sitting on unrealized losses. Historically, that kind of pressure has preceded broader sell-offs.
The brief dip and recovery
Bitcoin touched below $72,400 earlier this week, breaking what Darkfost described as a key support. The drop didn't last long — prices bounced back and have been hovering near $73,500 since. That's still roughly 6% below where the week started. The recovery suggests buyers stepped in around that level, but the fact that the price is still within striking distance keeps the risk alive.
What a confirmed break would mean
If Bitcoin closes a daily or weekly candle decisively below $72,400, the analyst warned, it could trigger a bear market. The logic is straightforward: holders who bought near that price would be underwater, and a wave of stop-losses or panic selling could accelerate the decline. It's not a guarantee — markets can always find new buyers — but it's a red line that traders are watching closely.
The coming days will be the test. Bitcoin needs to hold above $72,400 on a closing basis to keep the bull case intact. Another dip below, especially if it sticks, changes the picture fast.
