Bitcoin's current correction has now stretched to 245 days since the October 2025 high, making it the shortest of the last three bear market declines — but that doesn't mean the selling is over. At $62,950, the coin is down 6.2% in 24 hours and trading at its lowest level in four months, with the $60,000 support zone looking shaky. Several analysts, including Ardi, Benjamin Cowen, Ali Martinez, Xanrox, and the on-chain firm CryptoQuant, are now flagging a bottom window between September and December 2026, with October as the consensus month.
Why this correction is different
Previous Bitcoin bear markets from cycle peaks to bottoms lasted 364 to 413 days. At 245 days and counting, the current slide is already shorter — but the pattern of fourth-quarter lows appears to be repeating. Bitcoin bottomed in November 2014, December 2018, and November 2022. If that history holds, the next cycle low would land somewhere in the fourth quarter of this year. That's exactly what the analysts are pointing to.
What the analysts are watching
None of them are calling a specific price level publicly, but the timing consensus is unusually tight. Ardi, Benjamin Cowen, Ali Martinez, and Xanrox have all independently flagged the September-to-December window. CryptoQuant's on-chain data supports the view that the market hasn't seen the kind of capitulation that typically marks final bottoms. Until that happens, the downside risk remains.
ETF outflows add pressure
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are amplifying the negative mood. Those products were a key driver of the October 2025 rally, and their reversal is now pulling money out of the market. It's a classic unwind — the same flows that lifted prices are now weighing on them. The selling isn't panic yet, but it's persistent enough to keep Bitcoin below recent ranges.
Key support at $60,000
The next big test is $60,000. If that level breaks, there's not much in the way until the mid-$50,000s. Given the ETF headwinds and the still-elongated correction timeline, traders are watching whether the late-2026 bottom call gets validated early — or if September arrives with Bitcoin already below the round number.
