Bitcoin may be on track to confirm a bear-market bottom this month, according to 10x Research, even as rising Treasury yields threaten to push the Federal Reserve into another rate hike in September. The research firm's analysis points to a confluence of macro and crypto-specific factors that could set the stage for a local floor. But the timing is tight — and the macro outlook remains uncertain.
The macro headwind
Treasury yields have been climbing, and that's putting pressure on the Fed. 10x Research argues that if the trend continues, the central bank could be forced to raise rates at its September meeting. That would be a blow for risk assets, including crypto. Higher yields make bonds more attractive relative to volatile plays like Bitcoin, and a rate hike would tighten liquidity further. The firm sees this as the key risk hanging over the market right now.
What a bottom would look like
10x Research hasn't specified a price level for the potential bottom. But the firm's view suggests that current conditions — a prolonged downtrend, low sentiment, and macro uncertainty — could mark the end of the recent slide. An August bottom would mean Bitcoin finds support this month, then possibly rallies or stabilizes into the fall. That's the optimistic read. The pessimistic one: yields keep rising, the Fed hikes, and the bottom gets pushed deeper into the year.
The next big date is the September FOMC meeting. Before that, markets will watch the August CPI report and any Fed commentary. If yields keep climbing, the rate decision could come sooner than markets expect — or the Fed might signal a pause. For now, 10x Research is betting that August is the month Bitcoin puts in a floor. Whether that bet pays off depends on the bond market and the central bank's next move.
