Bitcoin analyst Merlijn The Trader is warning that if a historical pattern tied to midterm election years holds, the cryptocurrency could plunge to $33,000. The prediction lands right after Bitcoin got rejected at $82,000 earlier this week and corrected to a 15-day low of $78,000 — a move that's already cranked up bearish chatter on Crypto X.
The midterm pattern
In analysis shared on May 17, Merlijn The Trader laid out the numbers: in 2014, Bitcoin dropped 61%; in 2018, it fell 65%; in 2022, it lost 66%. Each of those years was a U.S. midterm election year. The analyst also nodded to the old 'Sell in May' adage, which suggests that markets tend to underperform from May through October. If that rhythm repeats, $33,000 is the target.
A second scenario
But Merlijn didn't stop there. He outlined a second possible path based on the 2021 cycle. In that scenario, if Bitcoin loses the $78,000 support level, the next stop could be somewhere between $45,000 and $59,000. That decline, however, could be skipped entirely if Bitcoin manages to hold that support. So it's a fork in the road — and the next few days will tell which way the market leans.
Sentiment sours
The rejection at $82,000 and the subsequent slide to $78,000 have already flipped the mood. Bearish posts are picking up on Crypto X. Whether that's noise or a real signal is the open question — the $78,000 level is now the line in the sand. If it breaks, Merlijn's lower scenarios come into play. If it holds, the sell-off might be a blip. Either way, the coming week is shaping up to be a decisive one.
