Bitcoin slipped to around $63,000 on Thursday, ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The move comes as pseudonymous analyst NoName predicted the cryptocurrency could fall further — to the $39,000-$49,000 range — after first filling an unfilled fair value gap above current prices. Prediction market Kalshi assigns a 55% probability that Bitcoin reaches $50,000 before $100,000.
The fair value gap theory
NoName expects Bitcoin to first rally to fill the fair value gap (FVG) above the current price, then drop within one to three days to the bottom range. He compares the current market sentiment to 2018, when a rally preceded the final drop. NoName sold Bitcoin near its 2025 all-time high around $117,000 before the bear market set in.
A contrarian take
Not everyone is convinced the drop will happen. Trader KillaXBT argues that waiting for Bitcoin to revisit $50,000 or $40,000 may be a mistake. He draws a parallel to 2022, when traders held out for $10,000 — a level that never came. The implication: the market might not give latecomers a second chance at those prices.
Market context
Bitcoin is down about 3% over the past seven days, though it's still up more than 5% over the last 30 days. The current price sits roughly 50% below the all-time high of over $126,000 recorded in October 2025. The Fed's rate decision adds another layer of uncertainty — rate moves have historically driven short-term volatility in crypto.
The Fed's decision is due later today. NoName's timeline suggests a potential drop within days after the FVG fill. Whether the gap fills first or the market breaks lower is the immediate open question. For now, traders are watching the charts — and the central bank.
