Bitcoin is trading at $73,240 as of Thursday, down 3.2% on the day — and two market analysts say the pain isn't over. Both see the cryptocurrency heading toward $44,000 by fall 2026 before a recovery that could push it past $200,000 two years later.
Why the bears are loud right now
Analyst Xanrox has flagged three separate bearish flag formations on Bitcoin's daily chart — small, medium and a larger one still developing. Those patterns, combined with an Elliott Wave count that places current price action inside an ABC corrective structure, lead him to call for a drop to around $44,000. He says wave B of that correction is complete, meaning wave C is underway.
Xanrox also estimates the bear market is about 70% done since Bitcoin's all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. He sees the bottom arriving around September or October 2026.
Two analysts, same timeline
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, agrees on the timing. He cites October 2026 as his base-case bottom for Bitcoin's bear market. Neither analyst is predicting a V-shaped recovery; both expect the correction to play out over months.
Key support levels to watch, according to Xanrox: $71,000 (the lower boundary of the bearish flag), $63,000 (early February low), and finally $44,000 — a high-volume zone on the weekly chart.
What comes after the bottom
Xanrox projects that once the correction ends, Bitcoin will enter a larger bull cycle targeting $200,000 by 2028. That timeline puts the next peak roughly two years after the projected bottom. For now, the immediate pressure is downward — and the technical setup isn't offering much relief.
The next few months will test whether those support levels hold or if Bitcoin slides another 40% to reach the analyst's target.
