US Bitcoin demand has been negative for 78 consecutive days, according to the Coinbase Premium Index, which hit a record low streak. The metric, which measures the price difference on Coinbase versus other exchanges, has been stuck at roughly -0.1145% since late May, far exceeding the previous record of 40 days set in early 2024. The drought comes as retail investors piled into tech stocks and AI trades, leaving Bitcoin behind.
Retail's pivot to tech
US retail spent the second quarter chasing AI trades, not Bitcoin. NYDIG data shows tech equities gained 43.5% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 27.7%, while Bitcoin fell 13.4%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $4.9 billion in Q2, marking the start of the demand drought. By late July, retail investors turned net sellers of equities — the heaviest retail equity selling since 2022, per Citadel Securities data. But the money didn't flow back into crypto. Retail sold more tech notional in one week than at any point since January 2019, beating the prior record by over 80%. Leveraged ETF assets fell more than $60 billion from their June peak; semiconductor products alone shrank nearly 55% in a month.
Equity reset, not crypto
Citadel Securities says July's violent selloff reset the equity bull market rather than ended it. The firm expects roughly 85% of the S&P 500 by weight to be clear to buy back stock by mid-August, which should lift equities. But Bitcoin has not participated in the equity reset. The Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 78 consecutive sessions — a sign that US-based buyers are absent. July's chip liquidation should have freed capital, but it has not reached Coinbase order books.
NYDIG's warning
NYDIG sees positive funding and rising open interest near cycle lows, but ETF flows and stablecoin supply do not confirm a recovery. The firm warns of a 'troubling setup for a liquidation-driven leg lower, not a durable bottom.' Bitcoin's price sits near $63,859, up 2.2% over 24 hours and 1.6% over 30 days, with a market cap near $1.28 trillion. But the underlying demand picture remains weak.
Citadel expects buybacks and earnings to lift equities into mid-August. For Bitcoin, the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, and without a catalyst — a shift in ETF flows, a macro trigger, or a return of retail buying — the divergence may persist. The record drought shows no sign of breaking.
