Bitcoin derivatives traders are coming back after an eight-month stretch of pulling back leverage. Binance futures open interest has pushed above its 180-day moving average for the first time since the deleveraging cycle began last October. The move signals that some risk appetite is returning to the market, though one analyst cautions the recovery may not hold.
The eight-month pullback
The deleveraging phase started after an event on October 10, 2024, and lasted roughly eight months. During that period, Binance open interest dropped from $6.4 billion in March 2025 to a low that wasn't specified in public data. By early May 2025, the metric had recovered to roughly $8.96 billion. That's above the 180-day moving average of about $8.75 billion — a level traders often watch as a gauge of medium-term positioning.
Analyst: It's a rebound trade, not a real recovery
Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, considers the current move more of a rebound trade than a durable recovery. In notes shared this week, he warned the situation is fragile and could reverse quickly. He didn't pin a specific catalyst for a reversal, but flagged that open interest still hasn't shown the kind of sustained buildup that would signal conviction.
Bitcoin price at $77,479
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin traded at $77,479. That's a solid price level, but the open interest data suggests much of the current positioning is short-term speculative rather than long-term accumulation. The gap between the current open interest and the moving average is narrow — about $210 million — meaning even a moderate unwind could pull it back below the trendline.
The next few weeks will show whether more traders step in or whether this rebound fizzles the way Darkfost expects. No exchange has flagged any unusual liquidation activity yet, but the market is watching closely.
