The May jobs report sent shockwaves through financial markets on Friday. The US economy added 172,000 jobs, well above the 85,000 consensus estimate, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Revisions to March and April added another 93,000 jobs, painting a picture of a labor market that just won't cool. For crypto investors hoping for rate cuts, it was a wrecking ball. Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 over the weekend — more than 50% off its October 2025 all-time high. The S&P 500 lost nearly $2 trillion in market cap within hours.
Rate hike odds surge
Before Friday, markets had been pricing in a fairly dovish Fed. That flipped overnight. Polymarket now shows a 53% chance of a rate increase before year-end. The CME FedWatch tool puts the odds at 42.7%. A week ago, those probabilities were in the single digits. The strong jobs data, combined with the upward revisions, has reset the entire rate outlook. A hike would tighten financial conditions — and that's a headwind for crypto, which tends to struggle when liquidity dries up.
Bitcoin tests a historic floor
Bitcoin touched its 200-week moving average near $61,000 over the weekend. That level has marked bear-market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2020. Whether it holds now is the question hanging over the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen heavy outflows in recent weeks, removing a key source of marginal demand. Without those steady buyers, the bids are thinner. The 200-week MA is the line in the sand.
Standard Chartered sees a path back
Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered said the bear market may be entering its final stages. He sees potential for Bitcoin to recover to $100,000 — but that depends on the macro backdrop turning friendlier. Right now, rate expectations are moving the wrong way. The next Federal Reserve meeting and upcoming inflation data will be the real hinge points. If the labor market stays this hot, crypto could have more pain ahead.
