Bitcoin took a hit this week, sliding to $76,700 before clawing back to $77,700. In the process, it fell below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price — the average cost basis for coins held less than 155 days. That means the cohort that bought in recently is now sitting on paper losses.
Short-term holders underwater
The STH Realized Price acts as a psychological floor. When the market price slips under it, speculators who bought during the recent rally are suddenly in the red. Historically, that can trigger a wave of panic selling at break-even — which only drives prices lower. Bitcoin’s drop below $77,000 put it squarely in that danger zone, though the quick rebound to $77,700 suggests some buyers stepped in to defend the level.
Long-term holders keep stacking
While short-term traders are nursing losses, long-term holders (LTHs) have been quietly accumulating. Their supply started ticking up in January, with netflow turning positive. Right now LTHs control 15.26 million BTC — a record or near-record hoard. That divergence is worth watching: one group sells, the other buys.
A familiar rejection pattern
This isn't the first time Bitcoin has struggled at the STH cost basis. A recovery attempt in January fizzled out near the same level, failing to hold above it. That pattern — rejection at the STH Realized Price during a bounce — has historically appeared in bearish phases. If history repeats, the next few days will tell whether $77,000 becomes support or resistance.
For now, Bitcoin is hovering just above the line. The question is whether it can stay there.
