Bitcoin slid to an intraday low of $77,711 on Friday before clawing back to around $78,225 — a 3.9% drop from its May 15 opening above $81,000. The move came as a broad risk-off mood swept markets, fueled by rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation data, and a fresh surge in oil prices.
Macro headwinds pile on
The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.599%, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.131% — its highest since May 2025. That repricing in bonds follows an April CPI print that accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March. Core CPI held at 2.8%. Meanwhile, WTI crude settled at $105.42 on May 15, up 4.2% on the day, and Brent reached $109.26. The University of Michigan's May survey put year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.5%.
Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with Nasdaq futures is now above 0.7, and its beta to equity drawdowns tends to spike when the Nasdaq sells hard. Thursday's stock sell-off didn't help.
ETF flows flip negative
Bitcoin investment products posted $706.1 million in inflows for the week ending May 11 — but daily US spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned choppy. May 13 saw outflows of $630.4 million, followed by a slight rebound on May 14 with $131.3 million in inflows, then another outflow of $290.4 million on May 15. The two-day net drain suggests institutional sentiment is fragile.
Key levels to watch
The $77,700–$78,000 zone is the immediate support. A breakdown below $77,700 could trigger a move toward $76,500, with the next major test around $75,000 — a round number where dip buyers typically step in. Below that, $74,000–$73,000 is the deeper macro deleveraging zone. On the upside, $80,000 is the first resistance, and $82,000 holds as major resistance and the 200-day EMA.
What could turn the tide
If the 10-year yield retreats below 4.50%, oil prices cool off, and daily ETF flows turn positive, Bitcoin could reclaim $80,000. For now, traders are watching Friday's close: if BTC holds above $78,000, the floor might stick. If it doesn't, the weekend could get ugly.
